News & Analysis

Eightcap Forex technical insights; Can tonight’s NFP halt risks recovery?

May 4, 2018 | Forex News

The USD rally has been very strong, risk finally make a comeback yesterday. The EUR and AUD seeing the best gains, the GBP failed to hold earlier gains made on Thursday. Sellers have increased late into today’s Asian session. The EUR and GBP have moved into negative territory. The ace in the pack presents tonight at 22:30, the non-farm payroll data. Depending on the outcome, we could see an extension to the recovery or it might be stopped altogether!

The EURUSD has found support from 1.1935, this level was a resistance high that became a support low. It’s not unexpected to see this level return as support on Wednesday’s low. Quite clear and cut, this area needs to hold to continue to show buyers have gained an imbalance.

AUDUSD has been the strongest so far in its recovery to the USD. Buyers have set up short support / low at .7484. Today has seen seller numbers increase from the higher resistance area. This is a slight worry as if the USD gets a boost from tonight’s NFP data that mass of sellers could put real pressure on the current counter-rally. From a bull side, we would want to see .7484 continue to hold.

The GBPUSD has had a horror time on the buy side lately. Riskwise it’s the weakest of the majors right now. Buyers still look very uninterested and unwilling to hold cable long. Despite that, they have drawn a short-term line in the sand at 1.3560. If tonight’s data favours the USD we could be safe to expect very strong selling on the cable. If risk see’s the favour could we see this level develop into a low for buyers?

Tonight’s U.S employment data will be released at 22:30 AEST
Average Hourly Earnings expected increase to 0.2%
Non-Farm Employment Change expected increase to190K
Unemployment Rate expected drop to 4.0%

Good trading from Eightcap




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