News & Analysis
Eightcap Forex technical insights; US Employment Data – USD – Gold 6/4/18
Traders the first Friday of the month is upon us again, that means US employment data. This weeks ADP employment data came in above expectations. Is this a prelude to better than expected figure tonight? And how will that influence the USD? Last months figure soundly beat expectations sending the USD lower and setting up strong moves for risk. Trade wars and tariffs have dominated the week so far with more fireworks hitting the markets this morning. But let’s not let that take away from the biggest monthly data release.
The market is looking for 188K tonight a lot lower than last months 303K, looking at this weeks ADP could we be in for a surprise to the upside? Unemployment is forecast to drop 0.1% to 4.00% and the market is looking for Average earnings to increase to 0.3% from last months 0.1%. If we have a repeat of last month with an increase in the NFP and a drop in average earnings we would be looking for another good drop on the USD.
The USDJPY could be a big target tonight, having had a great run this week adding 155 pips and breaking back above 107. With positive news, we could see the U/J test February highs getting back to the 108 area?
Golds had an interesting week so far with a strong rally to start the week and strong sell-downs. Golds fortunes have been tracking the current ups and downs between the US and China as the tariff tit for tat continues. Tonight’s employment data could also have a big influence on Gold if we have strong moves in the USD. This morning Gold bulls jumped as president Trump announced further proposed tariffs. As fears eased Gold fell by $13. Bulls stopped the bleeding once 1319.50 was touched, reconfirming 1320.80 support area. Why is this interesting, Gold has started to return to risk status, after starting the day as a safe haven. Will tonight’s data lift Gold higher from its support hit?
One last curveball in the mix is Fed Chair Powell, he speaks at 3:30 am tomorrow morning. Enjoy the potential volatility.
Good trading from Eightcap
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