AI spending, oil and central bank decisions

The Nasdaq 100 trades at 29,127 after Meta's plans sent it down almost 3% on Thursday. Meta said it would create a new class of nonvoting shares to help fund its AI build-out, its stock lost about $124bn in market value, and chipmakers fell almost 7%.

Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report this week, with more than $10 trillion of tech market value reporting in five days. WSJ analysis shows Nvidia and Micron alone account for 34% of the S&P 500's expected 30% rise in quarterly earnings, so the market is leaning on a narrow group just as investors question what the spending will return. SpaceX closed a $40bn chip-financing deal, but lenders have grown far more selective with companies that depend solely on AI data centres.

Price Levels

• Support: 28,880 → 28,750 → 28,200
• Resistance: 29,200 → 29,700 → 30,000

Technical View: A falling wedge has formed from the early October high near 31,400, and price is testing its lower line at the 28,750 to 28,900 floor of the August to September range. The broken rising wedge from July still carries a measured target near 26,900.

Outlook: Cautious. The index sits on major support, but until this week's earnings show spending turning into returns, rallies will face doubt.

The DAX trades at 25,122 after falling 1% on Friday as Europe's bond stress spread. France's 10 year yield rose above 5% for the first time since 2002, and European stocks fell alongside US tech on Thursday.

Germany's own data lands on Friday. Third quarter GDP is expected to grow just 0.1%, and preliminary inflation follows after 3.3% last month. With the ECB expected to hold on Thursday, a weak growth print would leave German stocks squeezed between high inflation and a slowing economy.

Price Levels

• Support: 25,100 → 24,820 → 24,600
• Resistance: 25,175 → 25,300 → 25,500

Technical View: A rising wedge built through October off a double bottom near 24,820 has broken lower, with a measured target near 24,200. The 25,500 to 25,700 band, where the wedge topped out, now caps the upside.

Outlook: Bearish bias. French contagion and weak growth outweigh cheaper valuations, and the index needs Friday's data to surprise.

Gold trades at 4,000 after touching a three-month low of 3,975, heading for a weekly loss of almost 4%. Last week we called it Bullish bias on a double bottom near 4,070. The pattern broke instead, so that call was wrong.

The driver was oil. Brent's surge and the escalation around Iran raised the odds that central banks keep tightening, which outweighed gold's usual appeal in a crisis. Investors chose Treasuries as their haven during Thursday's selloff, and gold has yet to win that role back.

Price Levels

• Support: 3,995 → 3,960 → 3,790
• Resistance: 4,020 → 4,070 → 4,110

Technical View: The October base between 4,070 and 4,200 has given way, extending the run of lower highs from the August peak near 4,690. Price now sits on the summer floor between 3,940 and 4,000, the last structure before 3,800.

Outlook: Bearish. Oil-driven inflation is pushing rate expectations higher, the worst backdrop for an asset that pays no interest.

WTI trades at 103, with Brent settling at $113 on Thursday, its highest since April, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalated and Iran stepped up strikes on ships near Hormuz using guided missiles.

President Trump says he is nearing a decision between a deal with Tehran and resuming strikes, which he has suggested could follow the 3 November midterms, and a third carrier group is heading to the Gulf. The US is cutting staff across parts of the region, and Israel votes on Tuesday, a result that could shape its appetite for renewed war.

Price Levels

• Support: 101.00 → 96.50 → 91.80
• Resistance: 107.00 → 109.50 → 113.30

Technical View: Price has cleared the 100 to 101 zone that capped it last week, extending the breakout from the large triangle that began in June. The September high near 107 is the next test, with the triangle's measured target well above near 122.

Outlook: Bullish bias. The risk of renewed war dominates the oil market, and any strike would hit supply directly.

Bitcoin trades at 80,453, about 36% below its October 2025 record near 126,000, after a midweek rally to about 84,800 was rejected at the 85,000 resistance. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in more than $1bn over three sessions early last week, then lost $636mn on Thursday as the Nasdaq slumped, their biggest daily outflow since June, leaving October's flows negative. Those flows have tended to follow price rather than lead it, so the outflow says more about the selloff than about the next move.

A second pressure point arrives at the end of November, when new MSCI rules on companies that mainly hold assets rather than run businesses take effect and could remove Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, from its global indexes. JPMorgan has estimated an exclusion could force about $2.8bn of passive selling in its shares. Until then, Bitcoin trades with tech, so this week's megacap earnings and the Fed matter more than crypto news.

Price Levels

• Support: 80,300 → 79,500 → 76,000
• Resistance: 81,200 → 82,800 → 85,000

Technical View: The triple top at 87,400 remains active after its neckline broke near 82,500, with a measured target near 77,600. A small falling wedge near 80,000 is the only sign of a bounce, with an upside target near 83,300.

Outlook: Bearish bias. Bitcoin is tied to a fragile tech trade, and repeated tests of 80,000 weaken the floor rather than strengthen it.

EUR/USD trades at 1.1201, down almost 5% against the dollar this year as France's bond crisis deepens. The premium on French 10 year debt over German bonds topped 170 basis points last week, the widest since the eurozone debt crisis, and France's 30 year yield has reached 5.5%.

The ECB is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% on Thursday, partly because rising bond yields are already tightening borrowing conditions across the eurozone. Lagarde has said the fix for France's debt must come from Paris rather than Frankfurt, but the ECB's never-used crisis tool for calming bond markets is now part of the conversation, and any hint of it would matter for the euro. Markets still price a December hike, provided French bonds do not deteriorate further.

Price Levels

• Support: 1.1160 → 1.1113 → 1.1000
• Resistance: 1.1250 → 1.1270 → 1.1350

Technical View: An inverse head and shoulders has formed through October, with a neckline near 1.1270 and a measured target near 1.1420. Inside it, a small triangle has formed a double top near 1.1270, pointing back toward 1.1080 if it breaks lower.

Outlook: Two sided. A hawkish ECB would support the euro, but French stress keeps any rebound fragile.

USD/JPY trades at 156.91 after falling about 0.7% last week as US yields dropped. The pair has spent October inside a range between 156 and 159.

The BoJ decides on Friday and is expected to hold at 1.25%, with Tokyo inflation landing the same day after core prices reached 3% last month. Signals of a December move would add to the pressure on the pair, while a hold with little guidance could revive it.

Price Levels

• Support: 156.66 → 155.00 → 152.89
• Resistance: 157.54 → 158.05 → 158.70

Technical View: A double top near 159 has broken its 157.50 neckline, with measured targets near 154.70 and 153.50. Price is now testing the 156.30 support zone, where a hammer candle hints at buyers stepping in.

Outlook: Bearish bias, meaning a stronger yen against the dollar. Lower US yields and a BoJ leaning hawkish both favour the yen, even with the broader dollar range-bound, though Friday's guidance is the swing factor.

USD/CAD trades at 1.4019 after six straight days of losses took it from its 18-month high of 1.4299 through 1.40. Higher oil and a narrowing rate gap have done the work.

The Bank of Canada is expected to hike to 2.50% from 2.25% on Wednesday, one of two central banks expected to raise rates this week alongside New Zealand, and just hours before the Fed. The longer-run picture is less friendly, with the IMF forecasting 1.2% growth for Canada next year against 2.1% for the US.

Price Levels

• Support: 1.3992 → 1.3940 → 1.3900
• Resistance: 1.4026 → 1.4080 → 1.4150

Technical View: The pair has fallen almost in a straight line from the 1.43 ceiling, with no pattern yet marking a base. The 1.39 to 1.395 zone, where the September rally began, is the next support.

Outlook: Bearish bias, meaning a stronger Canadian dollar. A hiking Bank of Canada and $100 oil favour the loonie in the near term, even with the broader dollar range-bound, though Canada's weaker growth outlook limits how far it can run.

NZD/USD trades at 0.5699, near three-week highs, after China's third quarter GDP grew 4.5%, beating forecasts, and retail sales rose more than twice as fast as expected.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike to 3.00% from 2.75% on Wednesday. Domestic data is softer, with the trade deficit widening to NZ$1.97bn in September and services activity slowing, so the guidance on further hikes matters as much as the decision itself.

Price Levels

• Support: 0.5671 → 0.5640 → 0.5580
• Resistance: 0.5702 → 0.5726 → 0.5748

Technical View: The pair broke out of a falling channel from the August high near 0.5980, and the rebound has formed a rising wedge with a potential double top near 0.5705. A break lower targets 0.5600 to 0.5620, while a clean move above 0.5705 opens 0.5740.

Outlook: Constructive. A hiking central bank and firmer Chinese demand support the kiwi, though it needs to clear resistance near 0.5705 to extend.

The Hang Seng trades at 23,090 after falling 4.5% last week. Thursday's 3% drop was its steepest in seven months, Hong Kong's tech index slid to a two-year low, and the index is now down almost 10% this year while the S&P 500 is up more than 11%. China's stock market has lost $3.5 trillion in value since its May peak.

Stronger growth has not helped, because profits are falling. Companies that have reported are missing forecasts by an average of 9%, battery maker CATL fell 11% on slower profit growth, and Alibaba's $10bn share sale diluted existing holders. State-backed funds stepped in on Friday, but the mainland CSI 300 still posted an 11th straight weekly loss, its longest losing run on record. Official PMIs arrive on Saturday.

Price Levels

• Support: 23,000 → 22,560 → 21,380
• Resistance: 23,220 → 23,750 → 24,375

Technical View: The index has made lower highs since the September peak near 25,800, and last week's break below 23,700 removed the October base. The June low near 22,500 is the next major support.

Outlook: Bearish. Falling profits, price wars and the absence of strong stimulus keep sellers in control despite state buying.

The ASX 200 trades at 8,728 after slipping from last week's high near 8,880. Fortescue warned it may cut iron ore output if talks with China's state buyer are not settled by year end, a reminder of how much leverage Beijing now holds over Australian miners.

Wednesday brings September CPI, expected at 4.2% from 4.0%, and a speech from RBA Governor Bullock. A hot print would add to expectations of another hike before year end, a headwind for banks and property even as China's data steadies the miners.

Price Levels

• Support: 8,710 → 8,633 → 8,590
• Resistance: 8,782 → 8,830 → 8,890

Technical View: The October rising wedge has broken lower, with a measured target near 8,490. The 8,590 to 8,640 zone, the October base, is the key support.

Outlook: Cautious. Pressure on the miners and a possible RBA hike weigh on the index, though steadier Chinese data offers some support.