After the hike, Xi comes to Washington

The US Dollar Index trades at 101.27, near a one month high after a September rally built on rising real yields and a widening rate gap with other major economies. Fed officials are leaning into it. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that persistent inflation risks conditioning the public to accept elevated prices, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said "some modest further tightening may be warranted."

The data run is heavy. ADP is expected at 70K after 38K, core PCE at 3.4% from 3.3%, ISM manufacturing at 54.8 and Friday's payrolls at 100K after 162K. This week's PCE also carries new methodology for several price measures, alongside annual GDP revisions back to 2021, so the headline may need a second look. The cap on the dollar is that the RBA, ECB and BoJ are all tightening too, which limits how far policy can diverge.

Price Levels

• Support: 100.47 → 100.00 → 99.67
• Resistance: 101.26 → 101.47 → 101.73

Technical View: A mid-September triangle breakout targets 101.60, just under the July highs. The 100.00 zone is supported below.

Outlook: Bullish bias. Firm data carries the index to the triangle target and the June high near 101.80, while a soft payrolls print is the main risk, with 100.47 the line to watch.

Gold trades at 4,256, below the 4,284 first support published on 21 September. It is caught between oil-driven inflation, which should help, and a 10 year yield above 5.2%, which raises the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. So far yields are winning.

This week's data decides which side gives. Hot core PCE and payrolls add to hike pricing and keep pressure on gold, while a soft labour print or an escalation in the Gulf would bring buyers back. The longer-run support has not gone away: China's Treasury holdings fell to $618bn, the lowest since August 2008, a reminder that reserve diversification is still running underneath the rate story.

Price Levels

• Support: 4,235 → 4,200 → 4,120
• Resistance: 4,280 → 4,365 → 4,400

Technical View: A potential double bottom is forming around 4,260, with a neckline near 4,400 and a target near 4,600. Daily moving averages between 4,320 and 4,360 are capping rebounds.

Outlook: Cautious. The double bottom needs 4,235 to hold, and a close below it opens 4,200, while a recovery through 4,365 is needed before the pattern deserves weight.

USD/JPY trades at 157.47, still running on the rate gap with the 10 year Treasury above 5.2%. The Bank of Japan pushed back on Monday. Minutes of the July meeting showed many members see household and business inflation expectations rising, one said the bank must speed up rate hikes, and another warned that the weak yen and Middle East events could lift inflation expectations further.

The Tankan survey is expected to improve to 25 from 22, and Tokyo CPI lands late Thursday UTC against a prior of 1.9%. Firm readings on both would support pricing for a faster BoJ, and the approach toward 160 also brings the risk of official intervention back into view.

Price Levels

• Support: 156.65 → 154.66 → 153.25
• Resistance: 158.00 → 158.62 → 159.77

Technical View: A rising wedge from the September low has broken lower, targeting 154.70. The rally stalled at the upper line of the broader falling wedge from July.

Outlook: Bearish bias. The wedge break points to 154.66 if the Tankan and Tokyo CPI back a BoJ move, while strong US payrolls is the risk that lifts it back to 158.00.

The Australian dollar trades at 0.7014, holding just above the 0.7000 handle ahead of an RBA decision the market treats as done. A 25 basis point hike would take the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%, its highest since November 2011, so the real question is Governor Bullock's guidance on whether November is live.

Wednesday's monthly CPI is expected to jump to 4.1% from 3.5%, a large move that would land the day after a hike. A print near that would keep the RBA tightening alongside the Fed and narrow the policy gap that has weighed on the currency. China's PMIs arrive the same morning and matter for Australia's export story.

Price Levels

• Support: 0.7000 → 0.6960 → 0.6922
• Resistance: 0.7027 → 0.7043 → 0.7064

Technical View: The August rising wedge has broken lower, targeting 0.6960. A second bottom forming above 0.7000 is the bullish counter.

Outlook: Two sided. Hawkish guidance and a hot CPI favour the double bottom, while a cautious RBA and a close below 0.7000 complete the wedge target at 0.6960.

WTI trades near 100.62, back above the round number after dipping below it. The supply picture has shifted materially in a fortnight. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said oil and LNG shipments through Hormuz have reached a six month high, with more than a billion barrels moved through the Strait in the last couple of months, and described momentum as building.

The risk has moved rather than disappeared. The Houthis reportedly attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and forced it to shut, which Aramco has not confirmed, and that line exists precisely so Gulf crude can reach Europe without passing through Hormuz. Brent near $104 against WTI near $100 reflects where that risk sits. Softer crude has also been doing work elsewhere, capping the Dollar and giving gold room to recover.

Price Levels

• Support: 99.33 → 94.30 → 88.50
• Resistance: 102.50 → 107.05 → 109.50

Technical View: The late August breakout from the descending triangle off the May high ran to around 107 before the first real pullback. Price is now testing 99 to 100, the first support since the breakout, with little structure beneath until the 94 to 95 band.

Outlook: Two sided. Improving flows and pipeline risk point in opposite directions, and 99.33 is where the breakout is either confirmed or unwound.

The Nasdaq 100 trades near 29,745, pressed against the ceiling of its range, with futures up 0.4% early Monday. Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield noted that a pro-business tone around the summit would encourage investors to read the index's inverted head and shoulders as the platform for an extended rally.

The structural question is concentration. Roughly 40% of the S&P 500's market value now sits in AI infrastructure companies, and AI accounts for nearly half of investment grade bond issuance this year, which is why large pension funds are finding their diversification increasingly illusory. The argument doing the rounds among asset allocators is straightforward: every infrastructure boom eventually builds enough infrastructure, and the only question is when this one does. In the meantime, stocks have become unusually sensitive to yields day to day, with the correlation now the most negative over a 200 day window since 1997, so Wednesday's PMIs matter here through the rate channel as much as the growth one.

Price Levels

• Support: 29,420 → 29,100 → 28,750
• Resistance: 29,760 → 29,950 → 30,250

Technical View: Since late August the index has traded between roughly 28,850 and 29,760, with repeated lows forming the base now being read as an inverted head and shoulders. Price sits at the top of that range, which also marks the underside of the rising trendline from May that broke in August.

Outlook: Constructive. The base is built and price is at the trigger, with Thursday's summit the most likely catalyst to clear 29,760.

The Hang Seng trades near 24,661 and carries the most direct exposure to Thursday. Groundwork talks between Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng ran through Sunday in New York, covering trade and investment, AI, critical minerals and the Iran war, and He said an announcement would follow.

The market's base case is modest. Beijing has also pledged tougher scrutiny of what it called malicious price competition, aiming to shift companies away from price cuts toward product quality, which addresses one of the long running drags on Chinese margins. AI is the harder issue: Washington has threatened action over what it calls industrial scale distillation of American models, and Beijing has said it will retaliate if its AI companies are targeted.

Price Levels

• Support: 24,525 → 24,340 → 23,875
• Resistance: 25,000 → 25,200 → 25,800

Technical View: A short falling wedge into the mid September low near 24,400 carries a measured target near 25,800, which is third resistance. Price sits just above the 24,400 to 24,525 band and below the round 25,000.

Outlook: Rangebound. The wedge favours a recovery, but only a move back through 25,000 makes it active.

USD/CHF trades near 0.8225 after briefly clearing 0.8250 last week, its highest since May 2025, and it is on track for a fourth straight weekly gain. The move has been driven by Franc weakness rather than broad Dollar strength.

The SNB is expected to hold at 0% on Thursday with Swiss inflation low, which leaves the rate gap with the Fed widening in only one direction. That gap is turning the Franc into a funding currency: as the BoJ normalises and Japanese rates rise, the Yen becomes less attractive for financing carry trades, and investors are increasingly selling the Franc instead. The press conference will be read for any sign the SNB is uncomfortable with that shift.

Price Levels

• Support: 0.8206 → 0.8153 → 0.8120
• Resistance: 0.8264 → 0.8300 → 0.8325

Technical View: Price is at the upper boundary of a rising wedge that runs from the May low near 0.7760, with the August triangle inside it already broken to the upside. Rising wedges at their upper edge are usually where advances tire, and the pattern's full projection sits far below near 0.7700.

Outlook: Bullish but stretched. Carry demand and the rate gap support the pair, but it is stretched at the top of its structure into Thursday.

The Hang Seng trades at 24,465, about 6% below its August high. Trump and Xi extended their trade truce to 10 January 2027 in Washington, but produced no new tariff cuts and no firm commitments on chips, leaving the index without the catalyst it needed.

Two things could change that. Beijing is signalling that Alibaba and ByteDance may be allowed to buy Nvidia's new RTX Pro 5500 chips, a direct positive for China's AI names. Wednesday's NBS manufacturing PMI is expected at 50.1 from 49.8, back into expansion. Liquidity will be thin from Thursday, with Hong Kong closed for National Day and the mainland on its Golden Week holiday.

Price Levels

• Support: 24,300 → 24,000 → 23,500
• Resistance: 24,750 → 25,000 → 25,400

Technical View: A falling wedge since late August, with a potential double bottom at 24,300. A break above 25,000 targets 26,000 to 26,500.

Outlook: Cautious. The setup leans bullish but is unconfirmed, and a close below 24,300 opens 24,000 and 23,500.

Bitcoin trades near 81,226 after rising about 6% on Friday, even as the Fed signalled further tightening. On chain data shows it has reclaimed the average cost basis of active market participants near 76,660, which is typically read as a return to a bullish regime, and the next reference levels are the corporate treasury cost basis near 80,421 and the US spot ETF cost basis near 85,638.

The zone above is crowded in both directions. A dense cluster of short positions has been building between 83,000 and 86,000, where forced covering could accelerate any move through it, but roughly 1.07 million Bitcoin also changed hands in that range, much of it now held by long term holders who may be happy to sell into strength. That makes 83,000 to 86,000 both the squeeze zone and the supply zone.

Price Levels

• Support: 79,900 → 77,600 → 75,500
• Resistance: 82,200 → 84,000 → 85,000

Technical View: The chart carries a potential double top, with Top 1 near 82,000 in early September and Top 2 forming near 81,500 now. The neckline sits near 75,500 with a measured target near 66,000, but the pattern is not active until the neckline breaks, and a close above 82,200 would invalidate it.

Outlook: Two sided. A bearish pattern on the chart meets bullish positioning above it, and 82,200 decides which wins.