Gold rebound tests $4,190 resistance

The price story over the past six weeks splits neatly into a sharp multi-week correction followed by an energetic structural bounce. After topping near the $4,650.00 handle in late August, gold endured a sustained 12.4% slide to a major double-bottom floor at $4,070.00 on October 7. Buyers defended $4,070.00 aggressively, engineering a 113-point recovery toward the $4,190.00 pivot. This recent expansion forms an intraday recovery sequence within the broader macro downtrend, with higher structural lows established at $4,112.00 on September 28 and October 8.

The single most critical feature on this chart is the impending bullish cross between the rising 20 EMA (4,154.03) and the flattening 50 EMA (4,166.47), directly beneath current price action at $4,183.51. Price is coiling against the key $4,190.00 resistance trigger and the $4,190.00 to $4,220.00 overhead supply box. Momentum firmly backs the bulls, with the 4-hour RSI (14) holding at 59.71, well above its 14-period signal line at 49.92, showing healthy upside velocity without reaching overbought territory. Should bulls clear $4,190.00 on a 4-hour candle close, the path opens toward the $4,393.00 secondary upside target, marked by the September 11 and 18 reaction peaks. Meanwhile, $4,112.00 and $4,070.00 serve as line-in-the-sand downside support floors.

The catalyst driving gold’s rebound from the $4,070.00 low is a temporary breather in the US dollar rally, alongside a pullback in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields from multi-decade peaks around 5.30%. Macro risk sentiment remains cautious as markets digest sustained geopolitical friction in the Middle East and energy market volatility, keeping safe-haven interest supportive of bullion demand. However, sticky global inflation metrics, with US headline CPI hovering around 3.4% YoY, continue to keep central bank rate expectations elevated, capping aggressive rallies. Central bank physical buying and stabilising institutional ETF inflows provide an underlying demand backstop near the $4,070.00 structural floor. As a result, gold is operating in a sensitive macro balance between high real yields and persistent geopolitical risk hedging.

Market conviction favours a continuation test of the $4,190.00 breakout trigger as long as price holds above the $4,112.00 intermediary support base. A 4-hour close above $4,190.00 confirms a broader recovery push toward $4,393.00 over the coming one to two weeks, whereas a break below $4,112.00 invalidates the immediate bullish momentum and reopens a test of the $4,070.00 floor. Traders should monitor upcoming US consumer sentiment releases, Federal Reserve commentary and Treasury yield direction heading into next week’s trading.