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Market Update: Weakness creeping in on the USD?

October 7, 2021
by Joseph Jeffriess, Market Analyst

Hi traders, today we’re taking a look at the USD Index as short term signs are starting to develop. These signs are on the bearish side and could be suggesting sellers are starting to pick up momentum.

Looking at the daily chart below we can see the solid run that made the HH and we can see the decline and continuation rally that failed to hold yesterday as the debt ceiling worries seen in the US have started to abate. The senate is confident a deal could be struck in the morning. The debt ceiling and inflation continue to be key influences for the USD at the moment but tomorrow’s NFP could also be a leading indicator depending on what data comes in.

Back to yesterday’s failed high, we can see that’s formed a new LH and this is something to look at as it could show buyer momentum is on the decrease. Sellers continue to hold short term momentum today with price in the red, 0.09% lower at this point. If sellers can hold a move lower could we see a test and break of the fast uptrend? A close through that trend line could confirm the LH and suggest a new short term move lower is setting up. A close above 94.45 cancels out ideas around new moves lower by sellers.

Tomorrow’s NFP, the market is looking for a positive number and for 490k new jobs to have been added. They’re also looking for unemployment to fall to 5.1%. US and Canadian employment data is expected tomorrow at 11:30 pm AEDT

USD INDEX D1 Chart

All times are AEDT.