Trading Week Ahead: 15th – 19th November
Important Data Releases & EventsTuesday AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA Gov Lowe Speaks Wednesday USD Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales - GBP CPI Thursday CAD CPI – USD FOMC Speakers, Williams, Waller and Evens
What happened last week?
In the past few days, the attention went back to the USD and gold, as US inflation took centre stage mid-last week. Key US inflation data came in higher than expected, driving demand back to the USD. The PPI came in as expected at 0.6%, and the Core PPI missed coming in at 0.4%. This was just the starter. Then, on Thursday, US CPI and Core CCI both beat expectations coming in at 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. This, and comments from the Fed, set the USD off as it jumped back above the September high. The USD index moving back above 95. Gold also benefited. The yellow metal loves high inflation and has historically been used as an inflation hedge. This round looks no different, as it continues to follow the USD higher as inflation pressure and worries persist. While a touch lower late last week, gold still managed to test 1868.
Major risk currencies had mixed weeks but mainly traded lower after mid-last week. The AUD and EUR hit rather hard while the GBP gave back decent gains moving lower late in the week. The AUD was also hit on the employment front as employment data came in below expectations. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2%. The three main majors also struggled to the JPY, with the GBP seeing the most defence from buyers.
US indexes dropped momentum and saw red for the first real-time in weeks. Inflation worries finally set up some decent profit-taking after record-breaking runs? European shares fared better than their US cousins. CFD indexes remained in the blue late in the week, and the GER30 edged into new records late last week.
Another strong week in the crypto world
Sellers took control late last week but overall, it was another solid week on the crypto front. Bitcoin crossed 69K for the first time and set a new record. Ethereum, Solana, Polkadot and Avalanche all set new all-time records during the week.
Inflation’s in the spotlight
This week, data-wise, it’s not exactly a full week. US retail sales will be one of the highlights, and traders will be watching these off the back of current factors in the US. High inflation and strong jobs data running a firm looking USD. Thursday, we see a raft of FMOC speakers. Topics of interest stable coins and current US economic conditions. Traders could pay attention to Fed member Evens comments and if any hints emerge about the current inflation situation. The Fed’s Daily did comment last week that inflation was high and is becoming a challenge. Could this be ramping up policy adjustment and feeding USD bulls?
Will the current tone continue to push the USD and gold higher this week? Could we see gold decouple this week if influences change? The AUD was beaten up a bit last week, the RBA minutes could add to that pain if comments continue to put a rate rise further away. We remember what happened on the cup day RBA meeting Gov Lowe is also due to speak on Tuesday.
Fades were in vogue late last week on the top 10 coins. Have we reached a short term point of overvalue? Could we see further downside this week as more and more traders look to book out recent profits?