News & Analysis
Employment Data Disappoints; December Rate Hike; North Korea Volatility
▸ No high impact news due out today.
▸ Bank Holidays in Japan, the United States and Canada
Friday’s employment data came in mixed. NFP’s figures missed expectations, coming in at -33K, a decent miss when the market was looking for 82K. This was the first contraction in the labor market in seven years. Unemployment improved slightly to 4.2%. Canadian figures showed a miss in employment change at 10.0K and slightly better unemployment. Higher average earning look to keep the Fed on track raise rates, DEC looks priced in at this stage.
Choppy trade on Friday night post Jobs data as EURUSD and USDCAD fell on the release. Gold set up a $7 range whilst US stock futures weakened. The S&P500 broke an eight-day winning streak finishing 2.74 lower. Early Saturday morning, the USD received a kick down as North Korea heated up again with news that North Korea is planning another missile test. The word on the street is that the missile is able to reach the west coast of the US. Gold and the EURUSD bounced back whilst the USDJPY gave up a 61 pip rally to finish 22 pips lower.
We should see a quieter Asian and US sessions today with Japan and US observing bank holidays. ASX200 has started the week stronger +21.70 points.
XAUUSD – with North Korean tensions resurfacing, GOLD is back on the radar. Friday’s trade showed a solid buy up adding just over $8. Support seen at $1267.40 with a failed low. Buyers are active this morning, price +$1.35. With a hold above $1270, traders could be looking for further upside. A cool down with North Korea could see fast turnaround.
EURUSD – reversed Saturday morning locking in a bounce from 1.1662. While price remains above 1.1708, traders could be looking for further upside.
USOUSD – oil fell hard on Saturday as news hit a new storm in the Gulf could hurt production. WTI-oil lost $1.53 on Friday finishing at $49.40. We’re back in September price areas with a medium term trend break. Friday’s moves looks like a capitulation low but time needed to confirm.