News & Analysis
Eightcap Forex technical insights; 26/03/18
Trade War and the Fed drove the markets last week. The USD finding no friends, the Japanese Yen resurging after a short stint on the Bid. Risk was mainly higher, but the AUD had a mixed week as copper and iron ore were sold on tariff fears, offsetting its strong single day rally after the Fed increased rates. This week is a shortened trading week as markets will observe Good Friday. We have a much lighter news week coming compared to last, the keys; Tuesday FOMC members speak; Wednesday US Consumer Confidence – Australian ANZ Business Confidence – US final GDP (2.7%); Thursday UK Current Account – Canadian GDP.
China hit back at incoming tariffs citing 128 US products they look to introduce tariffs on, these are mainly agricultural imports. Further developments this week will continue to drive market sentiment.
AUDUSD – has found buyer interest today after Friday’s failed rally. Buyers need to hold .7675 support and a close above .7720 to give this low further bullish confirmation. A new failed rally with a new low test continues to show seller commitment.
EURUSD – has shown short-term buyer momentum this morning after Friday’s mini-breakout. 1.2413 resistance remains above for buyers to beat. We can see that the short-term downtrend has been broken. If buyers can maintain control we could see a test of 1.2420 to the upside. Any buyer fails and price will most likely resume its range.
USDJPY – broke out of a continuation pattern on Friday. Buyers have been active this morning and price has rebounded to this point, we’re watching the pattern bottom to see if it becomes resistance confirming the breakout. Looking at a measured move of the pattern the market could extend 256 pips lower if the pattern ends up confirmed. A hold and close above 105.45 starts to put pressure on the setup.
Silver – failed to follow Gold’s jump last week. There’s a heap of supply from above 16.60 with an aging supply zone still in place. With a clam down in trade war worries, we could see a pullback in Silver and Gold. Silver’s drive higher was set-up by last weeks Fed rate hike. This move still needs to be respected unless sellers manage to break 16.37. A close below that point puts pressure on the current short-term trend.
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