Trading Week Ahead: 4th-8th May 2020

พฤษภาคม 3, 2020
by Joseph Jeffriess, Market Analyst

Article Recap

Key Events and Data Releases This Week

Japanese Bank Holiday

Japanese Bank Holiday
AUD RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement
EUR German Constitutional Court Ruling, EU Economic Forecasts
CAD Trade Balance

Japanese Bank Holiday
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
NZD Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

AUD Trade Balance
NZD Inflation Expectations
GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, Official Bank Rate
USD Unemployment Claims

AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
CAD Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
USD Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

(Times adapted to AEST timezone)

At the end of last week, we saw some clear shifts that we will be sure to be keeping an eye on in the upcoming trading week.

The price of oil fought back after hitting historic lows, with buyers adding just over 41% from the weekly low. This is just really Bitcoin numbers… 41%! It’s incredible to be talking about figures like that especially with a market like crude oil. This week will we see a continuation in the recovery trend? $21.50 is a daily and weekly price point that could become resistance, so if buyers can close above this level, it is another good sign that the current recovery remains on,

Is the U.S. Stock Recovery on the Wane?

If we take a look at U.S. stocks, the end of last week showed some cracks appearing in the recovery rally. On Thursday, we discussed how amazing the recovery rally had been as we saw the Nasdaq climb above 27% at one stage. Momentum shifted later in the U.S. session, as jobless claims exceeded expectations and as a result, the U.S. GDP fell by -4.8%. After snapping those winning streaks, we will be looking at how buyers respond. Could the recovery rally face some pressure this week? Many analysts are still not convinced the current rally is going to hold out. We will be looking for signs of new pressure or support this trading week. The Nasdaq has certainly been the strongest, while the Dow remains the weakest out of the three.

The Dow continues to see resistance from 25,055, as sellers have started to break the last leg up of the recovery trend. Traders will be looking closely at this week’s unemployment claims, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. Traders will be expecting further bad news but if the situation worsens, could we start seeing levels that would trigger panic around the current state of the economy in the U.S?

Look Out for the Euro

Finally, the EUR was the surprise packet last week, as we saw a sharp rally on Thursday after announcements from the ECB and Fed. The EURUSD jumped 1.05% late last week to move back above 1.0985. We’re wondering at this stage if the accumulation in April is the starting point for a new trend? Looking at the weekly chart below, we can see the accumulation period and the strong weekly candle that broke out of a short-term downtrend.


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