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Is the USD Index looking to move lower?

Published: 21.03.2023
by Joseph Jeffriess

Today we are looking at the USD Index, and asking if we could be looking at a new leg lower. Yesterday we saw a third straight decline as sellers rejected an earlier move and took back control. It was a commanding move lower as we saw sellers break and close below 103.35.

This move also beat 103.48 support and set a new lower low after the trend break. This move maintains the run of lower highs and lower lows after the trend break. This can be called a normal trend. Price looks to breaking the last uptrend, but we do see some potential support at 103.05 to 102.85. There’s been plenty of demand in that area, and we wonder if price can retest it will we see new demand develop from buyers?

This week’s FOMC is another big factor for the USD. Rates are expected to rise by a further 25 points, but could we see the Fed soften its stance due to the ongoing banking crisis? Inflation remains above their preferred level, so could a pullback, if we see one, be on a very short-term?

If we see sellers break yesterday’s low, we will be looking for sellers to make a new test of demand, as mentioned above. Then our focus will be on the FOMC meeting from the 21st to the 22nd of this week, and the statement is a key point of interest.

D1 USDX Chart

Good trading.

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