EUR/USD tests 1.1168 support

The price structure across September and October tells a story of persistent, multi-wave institutional distribution following the September 10 peak at 1.1650. An initial 335-pip sell-off pushed price down to 1.1335 before finding temporary support. Subsequent relief rallies were repeatedly met with aggressive selling pressure, forming lower highs at 1.1415 on September 25 and 1.1280 on October 6. The result of this persistent sell-off is a sequence of lower lows, with price now testing the primary multi-week horizontal support level at 1.1168, keeping the currency pair locked in a classic macro downtrend.

 The most critical feature on this chart is the combination of dynamic exponential moving average resistance and a clear test of horizontal support. The 20 EMA (1.1202) sits below the 50 EMA (1.1240) in a bearish alignment, hovering directly above price and limiting minor rebound attempts. Meanwhile, the 14-period RSI sits at 36.09, below its signal line (43.67), and continues to point lower without showing any bullish divergence to signal buyer absorption. A decisive 4-hour close below 1.1168 could open the way for a further measured-move extension toward the 1.1080 macro projection target.

Fundamental divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continues to drive capital flows into the US dollar. Elevated US 10-year Treasury yields near 5.35% maintain a yield advantage for US dollar holdings as global markets position for Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Conversely, the Eurozone economy remains hampered by rising Middle East oil import costs, reigniting stagflation concerns that constrain ECB policy options. With US bond markets closed for Columbus Day, reduced liquidity is adding to downside technical pressure on euro crosses.

Bearish market conviction remains intact as long as price trades below the 1.1280 lower-high resistance level. Traders may look for a confirmed 4-hour breakout below the 1.1168 support level as a potential signal for further downside momentum toward 1.1080, with 1.1200 serving as a tight trailing invalidation level. Any unexpected short-covering bounce above 1.1200 could encounter dynamic resistance near 1.1240–1.1280 ahead of Wednesday's US CPI release.