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Trading Week Ahead: 20th – 24th September

September 19, 2021
by Nick Alexander, Market Analyst

Article Recap

Important Data Releases & Events

Monday Bank Holiday China and Japan

Tuesday CAD Federal Election – AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – Bank Holiday China

Thursday USD FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Press Conference – Bank Holiday Japan – CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, SNB Policy Rate – EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI – GBP Asset Purchase Facility, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, Monetary Policy Summary

SaturdayUSD Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Gold Shedded After U.S. Retail Sales

The USD traded mainly firm during last week, with losses seen on risk majors and gold. Sellers didn’t have it all their way, with pushbacks coming in from buyers late into the week. The USD index started the week soft but bought back to touch 92.95 before the late week fade came in. Gold was rocked on Thursday, shedding 2.31% after US retail sales figures gave the USD a shot in the arm. Gold has been susceptible to the ongoing taper guessing game. Silver was also hammered on Thursday, but Platnuim held up better with a strong rally at weeks end.

Key Points From Last Week’s Data

Data wise, it was far from smooth for the USD as traders tuned into Tuesday’s CPI data. They were looking for clarity around when tapering could begin. However, the data added to the current uncertainty and showed misses on the CPI and core CPI. Adding to the confusion, the retail sales data came in hotter than expected. Did this give us an indication of what the Fed’s next move would be? No. But it did keep risk in the bid and the dollar on the ask.
Inflation was a highlight last week, with the UK and Canada reporting, and the U.S. UK data came in higher than expected, as did Canadian data. Staying with inflation, the EU said on Friday that their inflation was likely to be revised higher. On Friday, this did no favours for EU stocks as the GER30 dropped 1.16% in three hours of trade. Buyers did cut into the losses as the LON session neared the US open. Another point of interest was the JPN225 (Nikkei) buyers broke the February high, hitting 30,806.

Cardano Trades Lower for the Second Week

Oil saw decent demand last week, touching $73 and hitting new 6-week highs.
Bitcoin had a firm week trading back above 48,000. Demand looks firm at this point, below 45,200. But it’s wasn’t plain sailing for the other major coins. Ethereum moved higher but struggled to stay at weekly highs, while Cardano moved lower for a second week, trading as low as 2.30.

Here’s What to Expect This Week

This week traders, we have a fest hitting us on Thursday. Before we get into it, we want to note Canada’s Federal election, influencing the CAD.
Thursday. The Fed kicks it off, and the focus will be on current inflation and what path the Fed plans for tapering. This is starting to become the gift that keeps on giving. CPI missed, Retail Sales beat, does it all hinge on Jobs data now? Will we get a start date? Will it be this year? The dollar, stocks, and gold look to be the main markets waiting for clarity from the Fed.
Later that day, the Bank of England meets. Inflation picked up last month and was noted to be high. Tapering has been raised, and so have rate rises. Could we see a plan of attack in the statement? German flash PMI data is also due that day, and attention will be on firmer numbers showing continued recovery in the EU’s largest economy.

 

All times are AEDT.